ASOTELE / A PUBLIC FORECAST LEDGER

Forecasts, filed before the fact

Every week this repository commits probabilistic forecasts of verifiable public quantities, then scores them against what actually happened, by a proper scoring rule, forever. Nothing is deleted and nothing can be: the git history is the notary.

9forecasts scored

8/9beat the naive reference

78%of outcomes inside the 80% interval (target 80%)

100%inside the 95% (target 95%)

The rules, fixed in advance. Forecasts are 23 quantiles, committed before the target week begins (the commit timestamp on each linked file is the proof). Outcomes are decided by resolution procedures written per target in targets.py, after a waiting period that lets source revisions settle. Scoring is the weighted interval score, a proper rule: the expected score is minimised by honest forecasts, so the only way to look good on this page is to be right. A bad week stays on the ledger with the same weight as a good one.

Open forecasts

Filed and frozen. The outcome does not exist yet.

target week	quantity	median	50% interval	95% interval	status
2026-10-19	Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma	17.3	15.1 to 20	13.3 to 22.8	made 2026-10-16, awaiting the outcome
2026-10-19	Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York	21.6	19.3 to 24.2	15.3 to 27.5	made 2026-10-16, awaiting the outcome
2026-10-19	Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide	129.5	116 to 155	99 to 221.1	made 2026-10-16, awaiting the outcome
2026-10-12	Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma	18.4	16.6 to 21.5	13.8 to 24.5	made 2026-10-09, awaiting the outcome
2026-10-12	Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York	23.3	21 to 25.7	16.8 to 30	made 2026-10-09, awaiting the outcome
2026-10-12	Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide	129	116 to 154.2	99 to 221.1	made 2026-10-09, awaiting the outcome

The record

target week	quantity	forecast median	outcome	score (WIS)	vs naive	calibration
2026-09-21	Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma	23.2 [20.4..]	20.1	1.66	0.64	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-21	Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York	26.9 [25.1..]	21.7	3.37	0.73	OUTSIDE the 80% interval
2026-09-21	Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide	129 [116..]	127	6.60	0.13	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-14	Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma	24.5 [21.7..]	22.8	1.17	0.98	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-14	Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York	28 [26.5..]	28.6	0.74	0.61	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-14	Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide	129 [116..]	143	8.70	0.13	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-07	Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma	25.8 [23.3..]	25	0.94	3.13	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-07	Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York	29.2 [27.3..]	30.3	0.85	0.50	inside the 80% interval
2026-09-07	Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide	129 [116..]	101	18.57	0.98	OUTSIDE the 80% interval

What is being forecast

Earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater, worldwide (count in the target week). USGS fdsnws event count, minmagnitude=4.5, over the target week in UTC, queried no earlier than 7 days after the week ends. The catalogue is revised for a few days after an event; the 7-day wait lets magnitudes settle, and whatever the API returns at scoring time is final for the ledger.

Warmest daily maximum in Central Park, New York (degrees C over the target week). Open-Meteo archive API, daily temperature_2m_max at 40.7789N 73.9692W, maximum over the 7 local days of the target week, queried no earlier than 7 days after the week ends.

Warmest daily maximum at Seattle-Tacoma (degrees C over the target week). Open-Meteo archive API, daily temperature_2m_max at 47.4444N 122.3139W, maximum over the 7 local days of the target week, queried no earlier than 7 days after the week ends.